Predict things about your life with a confidence percentage. When the date comes, answer honestly. Présage scores you using proper scoring rules and shows you the gap between what you said and what happened.
The difference is overconfidence — and you can't fix it without measuring it. Présage measures the gap.
Make a real prediction below. Watch what happens when you answer — your confidence stays hidden until you commit. This is the difference between forecasting and rationalization.
Most "forecasting" tools let you see your old number when you grade yourself. That's not forecasting — that's storytelling. Présage forces a clean separation: commit, wait, answer, only then learn.
Your claim, your confidence, and your resolution criteria are timestamped. You can edit until resolution day, but the history is preserved.
Now you see what you said. The Brier score updates, the calibration curve shifts, the breakdowns by category and horizon recalculate. The gap closes — or it doesn't.
Calibration is the headline. Underneath, Présage is one of the most complete personal forecasting tools shipped — every feature designed to keep you honest, never to keep you addicted.
Proper scoring rules from forecasting research — the math behind Tetlock's Good Judgment Project.
Live diagonal showing the gap between your confidence buckets and your actual hit rates.
Heatmap of your year — every cell colored by accuracy, sized by volume.
Your most overconfident misses, surfaced — because the lessons are in the failures.
Apple Foundation Models running locally — claim sharpening and Sunday retrospectives, no data leaves your device.
Pre-resolved questions across topics for fast feedback loops — practice without waiting weeks.
Named biases Présage watches for in your patterns — anchoring, motivated criteria, hindsight, and others.
Five-year vision in five domains. Each milestone is a resolvable prediction tracking your long-horizon trajectory.
Printable record of your calibration year — beautiful enough to keep, honest enough to remember.
Brier score is a proper scoring rule. You can't game it — saying 70% when you really think 90% will hurt your score. That's what makes calibration measurable. Slide and toggle below.
Présage collects nothing. Every prediction lives in a SwiftData store on your device. No analytics SDKs. No telemetry. No crash reporting. The privacy manifest declares zero tracking and zero collected data types — the strongest privacy claim available on the App Store.
Whether it humbles you or vindicates you — that's the whole point.